Global Commodity Prices Could Rise 23% Due to War: World Bank

Global commodity prices could rise by 23% in 2026 due to the war in the Middle East, disruptions to energy supplies and obstacles to grain transportation, the World Bank has forecast.

The bank warned that the situation could worsen if the conflict intensifies and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure continues.

According to the World Bank’s latest report, released on Wednesday, energy prices could rise by 32% this year, reaching their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude oil is forecast to average $92 a barrel.

The World Bank estimates that global oil supplies could fall by 5.2% in 2026. Excluding the global economic downturn in 2020, this would be the sharpest decline in oil supplies in four decades.

Food prices could rise by slightly more than 10% this year. If they increase by more than 7% in 2027, the cumulative rise over the two years would reach around 18%. Fertilizer prices, which are closely linked to agricultural production, could also increase by 14% this year.

The report said disruptions to grain shipments through the Black Sea, the conflict in the Middle East and adverse weather conditions could push food prices even higher. The risk of food shortages could increase further if an El Niño event develops, potentially becoming the strongest since 1950.

Under such circumstances, food prices could rise by an additional 12% beyond the current forecast, increasing the risk of inflation and extreme poverty.

The World Bank also said metal prices could rise by 25% this year due to supply disruptions and growing demand driven by investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres. Prices of aluminium, copper and tin could reach new records.

Meanwhile, precious metals such as gold, which is widely regarded as a safe-haven investment, could rise by 40% amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said commodity markets were facing several major shocks at the same time. Higher energy costs and trade disruptions were driving up prices across a range of goods, putting additional pressure on inflation, food security and economic growth.

The World Bank said it had already provided $8.7 billion in low-interest loans and other assistance to 25 countries affected by the war in the Middle East.