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A new study by the University of Colorado Boulder finds that increased immigration enforcement under the second Trump administration is not expanding job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, and may in fact be reducing overall employment in affected regions.
Published through the National Bureau of Economic Research on May 4, the study examined the labor market effects of intensified U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity across 58 regions in the United States. Researchers analyzed federal Current Population Survey data alongside ICE arrest patterns between January and October 2025.
The findings suggest that regions experiencing sudden spikes in ICE enforcement saw a 4% decline in employment among immigrants likely to be undocumented. Researchers also observed a 1.3% decrease in employment among U.S.-born men with a high school education or less in those same regions.
According to the study, there was no evidence that wages rose or that U.S.-born workers gained additional job opportunities in industries affected by immigration enforcement. Instead, researchers noted a broader contraction in employment across sectors such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing—industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor.
Economist Chloe East, one of the study’s authors, said the results challenge the assumption that stricter immigration enforcement leads to increased employment for domestic workers. She noted that in some cases, reduced labor supply may cause employers to scale back operations rather than hire more local workers.
The study also points to what researchers describe as a “chilling effect,” where fear of enforcement leads some immigrants to withdraw from the workforce, further reducing labor participation.
Researchers warn that continued labor market contraction could have broader economic consequences, including reduced production and upward pressure on prices in sectors dependent on immigrant labor.
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